---------- Based on Feed Service Livestock----------
Corn prices shock higher. Affected by the cold wave, the circulation and transportation of corn have lagged behind, the quantity of new grain entering the market is relatively small, the supply of corn continues to decrease, and the spot price continues to rise. The arrival time of winter in the main corn producing areas in the north this year is earlier than in previous years. The new season corn receiving season has encountered heavy rainfall. The current corn moisture is still high, and the supply of low-moisture and high-quality corn is moderately tight. It is expected that the overall corn price will continue to be moderately strong during the first half of November. The corn price in the latter half of the western half of the month has the chance of another weak correction.
Operation tips: as the recent sunny and dry weather in the agricultural production areas of the United States helps farmers to complete the soybean harvest, analysts generally believe that the November supply and demand report of the US Department of agriculture will raise the soybean production forecast data. The weather situation in South American soybean producing areas has been good, the pace of sowing is fast, and many institutions have maintained high yield expectations. Coupled with active long positions and technical selling, the CBOT soybean futures market closed down, but strong demand for U.S. soybean exports constrained the decline in soybean futures prices. The falling futures price of CBOT soybean and the continuous decline of sea freight from international grain ships to Chinese ports have led to the reduction of the cost of imported soybean. The rising cost of feed has led to the poor demand for soybean meal from the livestock and poultry breeding end, which is already at a loss or with low income. The purchasing pace of feed breeding enterprises has slowed down after the decline of the willingness to supplement the hurdles, soybean meal is expected to continue to maintain a weak market trend against the backdrop of loose global soybean supply expectations.
Meal weak adjustment. Overnight U.S. beans fell sharply, today Zheng meal followed the meal fell sharply, the spot more with the market has fallen. Aquaculture peak season is basically over, rapeseed meal demand gradually decreased, its support decreased, superimposed on the loss of pig farming, protein meal demand is not good, but the global rapeseed is expected to be tight, imported rapeseed is expected to cost high, the late import volume decreased significantly. Under the influence of the superimposed power rationing policy, the start-up rate of rapeseed in the oil plant continued to decline, and the stock of rapeseed meal fell slightly. Under the condition of no goods and weak demand, the market did not intend to support the price. It is expected that rapeseed meal will follow the weak shock of soybean meal in the short term.
Cottonseed meal is stable and weak. New season cottonseed supply is increasing, oil plant start-up rate, the new season cottonseed meal supply pressure gradually appears, superimposed cottonseed meal cost-effective disadvantage is obvious, feeding enterprises on cottonseed meal demand shrank significantly, its short-term market presents a weak pattern of oil strong meal, bad cottonseed meal, it is expected that in the short term cottonseed meal prices to weak operation mainly.
DDGS is biased and stable. Aquaculture demand is coming to an end, livestock and poultry terminal demand performance is flat, the lack of terminal procurement demand led to a decline in DDGS turnover, but the cost side is still high, DDGS is expected to be adjusted in a narrow range in the short term.
Domestic wheat prices remain stable today. At present, the outgoing price at the grass-roots level is mostly 1.35-1.38 yuan/kg. Recently, the price fluctuates frequently and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is understood that due to the winter wheat planting delay, immediately beginning of winter, the weather cooling and other factors, some areas of farmers have abandoned the situation, increased the holding of wheat main traders in the wheat price of the bullish sentiment. At present, the price of wheat in Shaanxi Wugong Jinshahe Flour Factory has risen to 1.45 yuan/kg. Wheat prices continue to rise, which has strengthened the psychology of traders.
On Friday, the market was closed for one day at the festival. due to the sharp drop in international crude oil prices and the negative market sentiment raised by the executive meeting of the state Council, domestic oil futures adjusted downward. under the influence of the market, spot prices fell slightly. as stocks were still low and palm oil production continued to be restricted by the shortage of staff in Malaysian plantations, the price of oil was supported and the spot decline was limited. at present, the coastal one bean was 10400-10400-10550-10550-10550 yuan/ton, 24 degrees at 10100-10200 yuan/ton.
At present, domestic and foreign fish meal market wait-and-see mainly. The external market continues to remain strong, the current fish meal external CNF reference $1720/ton, and Peru's new season fish meal pre-sale volume of about 100000 tons. However, the domestic imported fish meal market is firm and stable, with Peru's super steam grade fish meal quoted at 11400-11700 yuan/ton, with the actual transaction price mainly negotiated. At the same time, as the temperature drops, the demand for aquaculture drops, and the demand for fish meal decreases, so that the port fish meal inventory is still at a relatively high level, above 200000 tons. Short-term fishmeal price fluctuations are limited, while focusing on fish resource results and quota announcements to give market guidance.
Recently, the European and American markets rose, domestic prices fell back to the annual low, whey powder market prices upside down, traders are reluctant to increase the willingness to sell, the price bottomed out.
Today, lysine is 12.8-13.6 yuan/kg, corn prices are running at a high level, power rationing in northeast and Shandong regions affects factory starts, and manufacturers raise prices frequently. On October 13, Yipin 98 lysine was quoted as 11 yuan/kg, 70% lysine was quoted as 8 yuan/kg, and on October 14, east hope 70% lysine was quoted as 8.7 yuan/kg. On October 25, Chengfu 70% lysine quoted 8.9 yuan/kg. On October 27, plum blossom 98 lysine quoted 12999 yuan/ton and 70 lysine quoted 9188 yuan/ton. Market prices rose to high levels, the downstream wait-and-see mentality increased.
Today, methionine 22-23.8 yuan/kg, foreign media reported that Xijie stopped the spot supply to the European market due to the uncertainty of production reduction. On October 8, the market said Evonik methionine raised its price to 22 yuan/kg. On October 13, the market said solid egg manufacturers stopped reporting, domestic factory production is limited. October 18, hijay methionine offer 25 yuan/kg. September import volume rose sharply month-on-month, the market price consolidation.
Today, it is VA285-315 yuan/kg. On October 12, BASF said that the VA1000 equipment upgrade is in progress and the saleable quantity cannot be provided at present. It is expected to update the information in mid-November. On August 25, Jindawei announced that the 800-ton VA oil project in the new plant area would be trial-produced, and the old plant area would be relocated in due course according to the trial-run situation. On September 14, the market said that due to the supply of sodium methoxide, DSM VA plant stopped production until the end of September, reducing production by 30% in the fourth quarter. On October 21, the quotation of BASF vitamin and carotene products increased by 15% ~ 20%. The market is high and the price is high.
Today it is VE89-95 yuan/kg, and this week the European market is 10.5-11.5 euros/kg. The market reflected that there is a factory to stop reporting the willingness to raise prices, this week's purchase and sales active, strong operation. Market sources said that Yimante VE factory plans to stop production and upgrade in mid-September for 6 weeks. On September 23, the market reflected that there are factories in Europe that plan to cut production from October to November. On October 18, the market said Xinhe raised its price to 98 yuan/kg. On October 21, the quotation of BASF vitamin and carotene products increased by 15% ~ 20%.
Today, pig prices have risen strongly, with significant increases in southwest China, and increases of more than 0.5 yuan/kg in most areas of Chongqing, Sichuan and Guizhou. As we mentioned earlier, due to the impact of the African swine fever epidemic on breeding sows from November to December last year, the supply of live pigs in the market was moderately tight, and the group enterprises had fewer slaughter plans at the beginning of the month, which made the supply of live pigs more tight. In addition, the market demand continued to grow, making it difficult for slaughtering enterprises to collect pigs, but it was difficult to keep prices down. The market supply and demand continued to play. Today's pig prices rose again. But we also mentioned that the market is short of pigs is not short of meat, meat prices rise after the downstream consumer side of resistance, will still form a certain suppression of pig prices, the recent pig prices are still likely to shock.
Today, egg prices continue to rise slightly. On the supply side, the stock of laying hens continued to decline month-on-month, and the current stock of laying hens is at a low level in the past five years, while the low temperature weather has led to a decrease in the laying rate of laying hens across the country, and egg production continues to decline month-on-month. As the main producing areas, the supply of goods in the northern provinces is mainly for domestic sales, and the external sales volume has been greatly reduced, and there are not many surplus goods in all aspects of the market. The supply side supports the rise in egg prices, but the demand side of pig prices, vegetable prices of high volatility pull up the egg market consumer demand for egg prices more obvious boost, egg demand side has support. The high price of eggs will affect the digestion of the supply of goods. Traders are cautious in taking the goods and selling them as they are collected. However, under the situation that demand exceeds supply, the price of eggs will have some room to rise. It is expected that the price of eggs will fluctuate strongly this week.
The price of phaseout eggs rose slightly today. At present, the price of eggs is high, the supply of eggs is tightening, farmers have a certain mentality of cherishing panning, and the elimination amount is limited. At present, the supply of panning chickens is limited, and the demand for panning chickens is greater than the supply. It is expected that the overall trend of panning chicken prices this week will be relatively strong and will be adjusted in the middle of the year or gradually.
white feather meat chicken]
Today, the price of white feather chicken continued to rise steadily. At present, the price of broilers continues to rise, but the increase is small, the profit of the breeding end is still limited, the willingness of farmers to be bullish is urgent, the enthusiasm of slaughtering enterprises is still not high, the number of chickens on the market is not large, and the supply and demand are stabilizing. There is still room for pig prices to rise in the later period, and there is still room for meat and poultry prices to rise. It is expected that the price of meat and chicken will be slightly stronger in the second half of the week.
white feather broiler seedlings]
Today's white feather broiler seedling price stagflation correction. At present, the speed of hatching enterprises is not fast. Although the price of white feathered chicken continues to rise, the increase is relatively small, and the overall trend of the broiler market is also weak. Farmers are holding a wait-and-see attitude towards the price of white feathered broilers in the future. The amount of replenishment is limited. The market demand for chicken seedlings is insufficient to support the price of chicken seedlings to continue to rise. It is expected that the price of chicken seedlings will be weak in the second half of the week.
Note: The daily quotation summary deadline for each variety is 11:30, and the difference in statistical time will cause a small difference in the price of the day.
